The end of another NAB, and perhaps the annual trade show isn't quite the Statue of Liberty of video production, but sometimes it is like a beacon that attracts people from around the world in search of enlightenment. So now that everyone is on a plane back home, and the booths are being torn down, some final thoughts on this year's show. The exhibit space was 900,000 square feet this year, up from last year, and while the crowds seemed smaller to me this year, according to attendance figures, it was a hair above last year.
4K, 4K, 4K
That was the over-whelming theme of this year's show. And unlike 3D, it is being accepted and embraced. My prediction is this will follow the same pattern as HD did - the bigger players with bigger budgets will move quite quickly on acquisition being 4K for future-proofing purposes, getting ready for the eventual migration to 4K. Everyone else will watch closely, knowing they will have to switch at some point. And just like HD, seeing 4K images makes you a believer. At both CES and NAB, the 4K images were breathtaking. Its not quite as dramatic as comparing SD to HD, but you can see the difference. This is why I think its going to take off with the decision makers - because they want this in their home. Also, there are practical reasons to shoot in 4K and deliver HD - the ability to zoom and crop and hold the detail. Canon had demos running in their booth showing a baseball game shot in 4K, and then cropping in for an instant replay. The crop in was quite significant, but there was no apparent loss in quality. So for sports, or even for dramas, the ability to re-frame a shot after the fact, and not suffer like in days past, is a compelling reason to move to 4K.
There are only two factors that might slow 4K down. One is the pipeline into your house - cable and satellite are nowhere near ready to pump 4K into your house. I believe this will be solved in the next 2 or 3 years - compression technology is amazing and will continue to get even more amazing. The second is more muddled - the internet. The web does not need 4K video. With more and more content being delivered over the web, the need for higher resolution becomes less compelling. So I'm not sure how in the end this is all going to play out. I do believe for certain that production is going to go to 4K in a big way. Delivery? That future is still cloudy.
3D? What's 3D?
No one was talking about 3D. Thankfully. To blow my own horn, I have been predicting 3D was going to die a painful, miserable death. It is.
Apple? No Longer A Player
3 years ago, Apple was the dominant force. Final Cut was killing Avid, Adobe, Microsoft, and anyone else. They seemed unstoppable. And then they threw it all away. No one is talking about Final Cut anymore, and hope for a new Mac Pro tower is fading fast. People have moved on. Sure, most people own an iPhone, an iPad, and a MacBook, but Apple no longer has mindshare. So people use their various Apple devices to read about, take pictures of, or text about some really cool product they saw at NAB, but none of those products are from Apple.
Premiere Is Gaining, Avid Is Losing
Long regarded as the loser in the edit wars, Premiere is gaining steam. They keep getting the program better with each version, and as FCP Orphans look for a new home, they are going to Premiere. Sure, CS7 finally adds things that FCP 1 had (really Adobe, it took you this long to add simple things?), but at least they added them.
On the other hand, Avid is starting to feel like your father's editing program. The new hip, young editors aren't editing on Avid, they are on Premiere. This should worry Avid. Avid doesn't seem to be in the same century sometimes. The program is solid, but is it as in tune with this YouTube/Facebook world we live in today? I will say that FCX is growing, and the users are almost embarrassed to admit it, since it's not cool to like FCX. It reminds me of the people who like Sony Vegas - a small, but very loyal group.
Panasonic? Are you awake?
This is the second NAB where Panasonic has had no significant announcements. In that same amount of time, Blackmagic has launched 3 cameras. If I were the chairman of Panasonic, I'd fire whoever is running the broadcast division. An Austrialian company with no previous experience in video cameras is being more innovative than long-time video camera maker. What's more disturbing is Panasonic isn't reacting. In the same time Blackmagic has launched 3 innovate, game-changing cameras, Panasonic added 60P to the AF100. Panasonic is fighting last year's war, not trying to win the next one. Contrast this to Canon, who had nowhere near the market share that Panasonic had, who has transformed their video division into a market leader. Shades of Fuji-Kodak.
Blackmagic is the new Apple
As I mentioned in a previous blog entry this week, Blackmagic is the King of the Hill. They've become the new Apple.
DSLR Gadget OverKill
Remember the days when there were only a few rig companies? Well, now there are 58,000,000,000 companies doing DSLR rigs. Even Bowen, who make freaking strobe lights, has DSLR shoulder rigs. Stop the insanity!
Thunderbolt Is Still Coming
Thunderbolt products have been shipping for a while now, but the one area they have been lagging is big, fat RAIDs. That will change this summer. A number of vendors are ready with 8 bay enclosures, waiting for Intel certification.
This ends DV Dude's coverage of NAB 2013.
